How far ahead do you think? We always get told not to focus only on the move we are performing but always to look ahead to the next moves should the current one fail. So if I'm attempting an arm bar from guard then I ought to be ready to switch to a triangle if it should fail, an then on to an omoplata should the triangle fail etc. it's natural to ask – how far out into the future should i be looking with my moves? Does it indicate that I am a better, more sophisticated Jiu jitsu player if i am thinking twelve moves ahead rather than only two or three moves ahead? I usually encourage students to think three or four moves ahead. Anything more than that becomes a little unrealistic as there are way too many variables that could lead to a totally new situation by the time that many moves have been completed in most cases in a competitive match against someone your own level. plotting too many moves also has a negative effect. It tends to make us under value and under commit to the moves we are attempting here and now and over emphasize moves that haven't even occurred yet. This usually leads to unacceptably high failure rates with the submissions we attempt. Limiting yourself to three or four move chains means you put a solid commitment to the move in front of you but have enough depth to continue attacks after initial failure for realistic periods of time. So arrange your favorite moves in three shot combinations and you'll hit a sweet spot of realism and idealism – enough moves in a combination to break through strong defenses but not so many that you never commit strongly enough to finish any one of them.
